Stochastic Weather Scenarios of Future Climatic Changes in the Saskatchewan River Basin

GeoNetwork record: www.gwfnet.net/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/3d9508bf-7ee4-408a-a057-40d823674535

Climate change risk assessment of water resources systems under deeply uncertain futures demands a comprehensive set of future scenarios to test the current and proposed management/policy schemes in the basin. This dataset provides a set of future climate scenarios over the Canadian Rocky Mountains where 80% of water in the Saskatchewan River Basin initiates. The dataset uses a multi-site stochastic weather generator to produce scenarios demonstrating plausible climatic changes over the 2080-2100 period. The final format of the dataset will be comma separated value (.csv) files. The following lists some of the datasets used in producing weather scenarios: • The weather generator model is set up based on the daily observed data of the Canadian ANSUPLIN dataset (obtained by Jefferson Wong) from the beginning of 1980 to the end of 2013. • The CORDEX-NA project datasets - which are Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections over North America - are used to understand the changes in the future climate (using 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 RCPs - accessed online): https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search/cordexsearch.html?variables=prec&variables=tmax&variables=tmin&_variables=on&_variables=on&_variables=on&_variables=on&_variables=on&experiments=rcp45&experiments=rcp85&_experiments=on&drivers=CNRM-CM5&drivers=CanESM2&_drivers=on&models=CanRCM4&models=CRCM5-UQAM&_models=on&freqs=day&_freqs=on&grids=NAM-44i&_grids=on&bcs=raw&_bcs=on

Data was produced for theme C1: Future scenario generation for river-basin scale changes in climate, land surface, and water resources.

Climate change is suggested to affect the temporal and spatial availability of fresh water resources around the world, and not surprisingly, within Canada. Current water infrastructures, such as dams, weirs, channels, etc. are mostly built without considering future expected changes in water availability. Preparing and adapting current infrastructures demand a broad understanding of how the future will unfold given the current rate of global warming. In doing so, this research provides thousands of climate scenarios helping stakeholders understand what to expect in future, and aid in subsequent planning.

70 catchments mostly located in the headwaters of the Saskatchewan River Basin are considered in this study.

Model name: MulGETS; HBV-SASK; IWMSask – IMPC MODSIM Model Model version number: 1.2.0.0; 1.0; 2.1 Model source/webpage: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/47537-multi-site-stochstic-weather-generator-mulgets ; Included in the VARS-TOOL Software: https://vars-tool.com/vars-tool-program/ ; https://github.com/kasra-keshavarz/IWMSASK (currently under embargo) Model output pre-processing script: Not applicable; Not applicable; Included in the source link Model output post-processing script: Not applicable; Not applicable; Included in the source link Model setup: Not applicable; Not applicable; Included in the source link Time step: Daily; Daily; Weekly Initial condition: Not applicable; Model’s default; Included in the source link Boundary condition: Not applicable; Model’s default; Included in the source link