https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8792

Papalexiou, S.M., Serinaldi, F., Porcu, E. (2022) Space-time simulation of storms and beyond! EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23-27 May 2022, EGU22-8792. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8792

Simulating storms, or hydro-environmental fluxes in general, in space and time is challenging and crucial to inform environmental risk analysis and decision making under variability and uncertainty. Here, we advance space-time modelling by enabling simulation of random fields (RF) described by general velocity fields and anisotropy. This advances the skills of the Complete Stochastic Modeling Solution (CoSMoS) framework in space and time and enables RF's simulations that reproduce desired: (a) non-Gaussian marginal distribution, (b) spatiotemporal correlation structure (STCS), (c) velocity fields with locally varying speed and direction that describe advection, and (d) locally varying anisotropy. We demonstrate applications of CoSMoS by simulating storms at fine spatiotemporal scales that move across an area, spiraling fields such weather cyclones, air masses converging to (or diverging from) a point and more. The methods are implemented in the CoSMoS R package freely available in CRAN.

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8792