https://hdl.handle.net/10388/17304

Closed-basin lakes in Canada’s semi-arid prairie region experience significant water level fluctuations due to climate change and hydrological variability. In Moose Mountain Provincial Park, Saskatchewan, the increasing beaver population is further influencing the water levels of Kenosee Lake, the park’s largest and most utilized water body. Beavers (Castor canadensis), known as ecosystem engineers, modify landscapes through dam-building, creating wetlands that alter surface water dynamics. This study investigates the relationship between lake levels, beaver activity, and climate change by simulating the water balance of Kenosee Lake. The Cold Region Hydrological Model (CRHM) was used to simulate the lake’s hydrological regime, while the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) and Wetland DEM Ponding Model (WDPM) were used to understand hydrological flow paths in the Kenosee Lake’s watershed. Model performance was evaluated by comparing CRHM simulations with observed water levels from 2002 to 2013 and 2020 to 2024, demonstrating agreement between simulated and real-time data. Future projections extending to 2100 indicate that climate change will lead to increased hydrological variability, with more extreme fluctuations in water levels. Additionally, beaver activity is expected to further alter water storage and distribution, potentially exacerbating or mitigating climate-induced changes depending on hydrological conditions.

https://hdl.handle.net/10388/17304